Rainfall Forecast: There is agreement among several forecast products that light to moderate rains of up to 100 mm is expected over the southwest state and central parts of the country, with some forecasting products anticipating more intense rains. The spatial variation of the consensus-based rainfall forecast is follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is expected over isolated areas in Galgaduud, Mudug and Hiraan regions. Specifically, such rains are likely over Ceel Buur district and southern parts of Cabudwaaq district in Galgaduud region, northern parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiran region, and northern parts of Jariiban district in Mudug region. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is anticipated over Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, Mudug, and Nugal regions. Rains of such intensity are also possible over northern parts of Bay region, southern parts of Bari region, and isolated areas in Sool, Togdheer and Woqqoyi Galbeed regions. Dry conditions are likely in extensive areas in the southern and northern parts of the country. In the north such dry conditions are expected over Awdal region, northeastern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region, Sanaag and Bari regions. In the south, such dry conditions are likely over Gedo region, coastal parts of Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba, and Lower Juba regions. However, there are chances of cloudiness leading up to light rains over some of these areas.

Review of the 2023 March-April-May (MAM) seasonal rainfall has demonstrated three key points: First, there was an early transition into the Gu (April-May-June) long rains season in Somalia this year. Secondly, above Long Term Mean (LTM) rainfall was received over Puntland and Somaliland and below LTM over South and Central Somalia. Thirdly, the observed rainfall was more in agreement with the forecast over South and Central Somalia and less over Somaliland. The early onset of the generally above-LTAM MAM rainfall led to substantial recharge of water sources, replenished water catchment levels, improved soil moisture conditions, creating favorable conditions for pasture regeneration, offering first line fodder for the livestock. It also favored land preparation and timely crop and fodder planting across the agro-pastoral livelihoods. However, the exceptionally heavy rains over both Shabelle and Juba River catchments in Ethiopian Highlands and the already-soaked soil conditions over the catchments within Somalia led to excessive overbank spillage resulting to devastating floods at Belet Weyne from 9th May, at Bulo Burti from 25th May and at Jalalaqsi from 26th May 2023. Flash floods occassioned by localised rains also occured in several places within Somalia like Bardheere from 23rd March 2023. The floods led to extensive damage to farmlands with earlier-grown crop and fodder and the grassland plains with devastating implications. Nonetheless, the MAM rains generally led to improved food security situation across the country particularly in the case of Somaliland where the observed rains were above LTM. The wetter than average projected rainfall conditions are likely to at least slow the loss of soil moisture and support agricultural and livestock productivity over South and Central Somalia over which below LTM Gu rains were observed. This bulletin presents both qualitative and quantitative review of the temporal and spatial variation of observed-, and verification of the forecast Gu rainfall season.

Moderate rainfall expected over southern coastal regions with light rains predicted over most other parts of Somalia during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial distribution of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is expected over the areas next to the coastline in the southern part of the country. These areas include the eastern and coastal parts of both Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts, eastern and southern parts of Afmadow district, and the entire Jamaame district in Lower Juba region. Similarly, moderate rains are also likely over Jilib district and the isolated areas in the southern part of Buále district in the Middle Juba region and over several areas in southern and western parts of both Sablaale and Baraawe districts in Lower Shabelle region. Some isolated areas in the north particularly over Eerigavo in Sanaag region are also likely to receive moderate rains. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected over several areas in Afmadow district and the western parts of Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts in Lower Juba region; Saakow district and northern parts of Buáale district in Middle Juba region; and southern and eastern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region. Similar rains are likely over Qoryoley, Kurtunwaarey, Marka, Afgooye and Wanla Weyne districts in Lower Shabelle region; several areas in Middle Shabelle and Bay regions; non-coastal areas of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region; and non-coastal areas of both Xaradheere district and southern Hobyo district in Mudug region. In the northern parts of the country, such light rains are likely over southern and central parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed; several isolated areas in Togdheer region; Xudun and Caynabo districts in Sool region; central border areas of Ceel Afweyne and Ceerigaabo districts, northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts in Sanaag region, areas in southern Bossaso district and northeastern parts of Iskushuban district in Bari region. Similarly lighter rains are also likely over the border areas between Garowe and Eyl districts in Nugaal region. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several areas in Afmadow district and the western parts of Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts in Lower Juba region; Saakow district and northern parts of Buáale district in Middle Juba region; and southern and eastern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region. Similar rains are likely over Qoryoley, Kurtunwaarey, Marka, Afgooye and Wanla Weyne districts in Lower Shabelle region; several areas in Middle Shabelle and Bay regions; non-coastal areas of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region; and non-coastal areas of both Xaradheere district and southern Hobyo district in Mudug region. In the northern parts of the country, such light rains are likely over southern and central parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed; several isolated areas in Togdheer region; Xudun and Caynabo districts in Sool region; central border areas of Ceel Afweyne and Ceerigaabo districts, northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts in Sanaag region, areas in southern Bossaso district and northeastern parts of Iskushuban district in Bari region. Similarly lighter rains are also likely over the border areas between Garowe and Eyl districts in Nugaal region. Dry conditions are expected over the entire Awdal region and several areas in Gedo, Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, Mudug, Nugaal and Bari regions. In the northern parts of the country, such dry conditions are likely over Berbera district and the northern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed; northern parts of Ceel Afweyne district, northwestern, southern and eastern parts of Ceerigaabo district and central and southern parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region; Caluula, Qandala, Qardho, and Bandarbeyla districts and southern parts of Iskushuban district and northern parts of Bossaso district in Bari region.

Light rainfall is predicted over the southern regions and some isolated areas in the north with dry conditions expected over most parts of Somalia during the forecast period. The spatial patterns of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected in the southern regions including: the eastern and coastal parts of both Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts, eastern and southern parts of Afmadow district, and the entire Jamaame district in Lower Juba region; Jilib district and Buáale district in the Middle Juba region; Diinsoor district and northern border areas of Buur Hakaba and Baydhaba districts in Bay region; Sablaale district and the entire coastal parts of Lower Shabelle region, and areas around Mogadishu in Banadir region. In the northern part of the country, similarly light rains are likely over southern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed, the northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts over Sanaag region and areas bordering the three districts of Qandala, Iskushuban and Caluula in Bari region. Localized light rains in other parts of the country are as shown in the map. Dry conditions are expected over the rest of the country especially the entire Awdal region, many parts of Gedo, Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, Mudug, Nugaal, Sool and Bari regions, northern Woqooyi Galbeed region and southern parts of Sanaag region.

Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected the southern regions including: Middle Juba region, the eastern and coastal parts of Lower Juba region, coastal parts of Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle regions, south and central parts of Bay region, some areas in eastern parts of Gedo region, and coastal parts of Galgaduud region and Ceel Dheer district in Mudug region. In the northern part of the country, similarly light rains are likely over southern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed, the northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts over Sanaag region and areas bordering Iskushuban and Caluula distrcits in Bari region. Dry conditions are expected over the rest of the country..

There is a High Risk of Flooding along the Shabelle River at Belet Weyne Moderate rains received in Shabelle River catchment in the Ethiopian highlands and light rains observed in the areas around the Ethiopian borderhave sustained a steady rise in levels along Shabelle River. In the last four days, 40.5 mm of cumulative rainfall has been received at Belet Weyne; 22 mm on 5th, 8.5 mm on 6th and 10 mm on 8th May 2023. The river levels at Belet Weyne steadily increased from 6.38m on 26th April to 7.90m as reported today (8th May 2023). Today’s level is 60 cm above the high flood risk level (7.30 m) and just 40 cm below the bank full (8.30m) threshold. However, at 6.12 m and 3.75 m, the levels at Bulo Burti and Jowhar are 38 cm and 1.25 m below their moderate flood risk thresholds. Since 2nd May 2023 when the high flood risk level was reached at Belet Weyne, any increment in run off occasioned by the moderate rains across the Ethiopian border can potentially lead to river flooding. The information coming from the field indicates that the river flow is hitting the deck of two bridges in Belet Weyne with very high likelihood of river overflowing the banks and causing flooding that might affect Belet Weyne town and its surrounding areas. The Hirshabelle State, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation is reported to be distributing pre-positioned sandbags to the vulnerable sites which have begun seeping the water into the town. Although these efforts may mitigate the effects of the flooding, population living in Belet Weyne town and its surrounding areas must still take precautionary measures. The rainfall forecast for the next three days (8th – 10th May) indicates light cumulative rain of about 10 mm over Belet Weyne and of about 20 mm over its catchment in the Ethiopian Highlands. Although there is high risk of flooding along Shabelle River at Belet Weyne currently, river levels are expected to stabilize to below moderate flood risk levels in the coming days given the above light to moderate forecast rainfall conditions.

After the continuous steady rise in its levels at Bulo Burte, the Shabelle River reached its bankful height on Thursday 26th May 2023. On the same day, 58.0 mm of rainfall was received at Bulo Burte station. Subsequent flooding was reported in four villages: Indha Ceel, Bagabeeso, Wadajir and Hagi Buube. The overbank flood water also hindered access in and out of Bulo Burte via the bridge. Downstream in Jalalaqsi, flooding was also reported in Wadajir Horseed, Howl Wadaq and Gumarey on the 27th May 2023). Access through the bridge at Jalalaqsi was also hindered by the flood water. The river levels at both Bulo Burte (Figure 1) and Jalalaqsi have remained at bankful height to date (29th May) with more flood impacts reported. For these four continuous days, the residents have been forced to use boats to gain access to and from both towns. The impacts of the floods (Map 1) that began with Shabelle River bursting its banks on the 9th May 2023 at Belet Weyne have been widespread and devastating. Valuable properties have been lost including farmlands and house destructions. The ensuing population displacement have triggered other social challenges including, unavailability of shelter, food, and clean water for use, increase in water borne diseases, and family disconnection for example. This comes even before the residents of Belet Weyne upstream of Bulo Burte have had a complete return to their normal lives. Having lasted for 15 days in Belet Weyne (9th till 24th May), it is expected that the bankful river levels at Bulo Burte and Jalalaqsi will be sustained for the same period, even though some of the flood water may have been lost through river breakages and overbank spillage in between. Flooding is expected to continue over the next one week with a HIGH RISK OF FLOODS extending to other flood prone areas in Bulo Burte, Jalalaqsi and the adjacent areas. The river level at Jowhar has stagnated below moderate flood risk level (5.0 m) since the beginning of the Gu rains, with today’s level (3.70 m) being far much below its normal mark in this season (4.2 m), but higher than last year level at this time of the year. It is however expected that the high river levels at Bulo Burte will be transmitted to Jowhar within three to five days and eventually to Balcad within the coming week. A HIGH-RISK FLOOD WARNING is therefore foreseen over the next one week for Jowhar and the adjacent areas Since the 58.0 mm rains observed at Bulo Burte on Thursday 26th May, dry conditions have prevailed in the last week over South Central Somalia including the entire stretch of Shabelle River from Belet Weyne to Balcad. Consequently, not much run off will sustain the river levels as the flood wave flows downstream to Balcad. A MODERATE-RISK FLOOD WARNING is therefore foreseen over the next one week for Balcad and the adjacent areas. Therefore, residents of the flooded areas in Bulo Burte and Jalalaqsi are urged to beware of crocodiles that could have escaped the river on to the floodplains. They should also beware of the risks of drowning. In order to prevent water borne diseases, proper hygiene including disinfection measures should be adopted e.g., chlorination of water sources. The residents of areas prone to, but not yet flooded, should move to higher grounds. Residents in these areas who receive this flood warning information should pass it on to family, friends, and neighbors, securing property, and considering assembling an emergency kit with necessary supplies. The residents and authorities should close any open breakages and reinforce the weak river embankments using sandbags provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in partnership with the Hirshabelle Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and other partners upstream and downstream of Jowhar and Balcad. The residents should also prepare for potential evacuation by identifying safe routes to high grounds and gathering essential items, inform family, friends, and neighbors about the flood warning, secure property and consider assembling an emergency kit with necessary supplies. Residents are also strongly recommended to stay informed through regular bulletin updates at specified times, monitor thorough radio, television and internet for flood warnings.

According to the weekly forecast, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected over several areas in northeastern parts of the country, with light rains over central and southern parts during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Very heavy rainfall of more than 150 mm is likely to be observed over some areas in Nugal and Bari regions in the northeastern parts of the country. In Bari region, these very heavy rains are likely over the border areas of eastern Qandala and Iskushuban districts and over Bandarbeyla district. In Nugaal region, such very heavy rains are expected over Eyl district and southeastern parts of Garowe district. Over Eyl district, the rains could actually exceed 200mm in areas like Dihlil and Bacad Weyne. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over some areas in Nugal and Bari regions in the northeastern parts of the country. Several areas in Bandarbeyla and some areas in eastern parts of Qandala district and northern and eastern parts of Iskushuban, and southern parts of Caluula district in Bari region will observe such heavy rainfall. Similarly heavy rainfall is likely over several areas in Eyl district and eastern parts of Garowe district in Nugaal region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is likely over all other areas in Bari region except Bossaso district and over all areas in Nugaal region except Burtinle district. Moderate rainfall is also expected over Buhoodle district and southern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region, south most parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region, eastern parts of Laas Canood and Taleex districts in Sool region, Galdogob district and western parts of Garowe district, and northern parts of Jariiban district in Mudug region. In the central parts of the country, moderate rains are expected in the southern parts of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region and Cadale district in Middle Shabelle region. Rainfall of similar amount is expected over isolated areas in Qoryooley district, Kurtunwaarey district, and southwestern parts of Sablaale district in Lower Sheballe. Similarly moderate rains are likely over northern parts of Jilib district and southern parts of Buáale district, northeastern parts of Kismaayo district and southern parts of Badhaadhe district in Lower Juba region. Light rains of less than 50 mm is expected over several areas in the following regions: Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Galgaduud, Mudug, Sool and Togdheer. Light rainfall is also anticipated over Saakow district and northern parts of Buáale district in Middle Juba region, northeastern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region, south, central and eastern parts of Bay region, and Belet Weyne and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region. In the northern parts of the country, similarly light rainfall is expected over southern and southeastern parts of Sanaag region, northern parts of Bossaso, Qandala and Caluula districts in Bari region, southern parts of Hargeisa and Gebiley districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region, and southern parts of Baki and Borama districts in Awdal region. Dry conditions are expected in the southwestern parts of the country including Bakool region and several areas in Gedo and Hiraan regions, and Ceel Buur district in Galgaduud region. Dry conditions are also likely in the north most parts of the country particularly over Zeylac and Lughaye districts and northern parts of Baki district in Awdal region, Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, and Sheikh district in Togdheer region. Several areas in the western and northern parts of Sanaag region, as well as the northern coastal strip in Bari region, are also likely to remain dry. Moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C are expected over several areas in the southern and northeastern parts of the country. Temperatures as low as 20°C are likely over some areas in the southern parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed regions, Sheikh district in northern Togdheer region and Ceerigaabo in Sanaag region and northern parts of Qandala. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°C are expected in the central regions and northwestern parts of the country.

Since bursting its banks on May 9th, 2023, the Shabelle River’s water level at Belet Weyne (figure 1) has remained at a bankful height of 8.30 meters up to the current date of May 15th. Over the past week Belet Weyne town and its surrounding regions, has witnessed widespread and devastating floods (map 1). These floods have resulted in the destruction of homes, crops, and roads, as well as the displacement of numerous families and have impacted heavily on the transportation network. The river levels at Bulo Burti (figure 2), located about 100 km downstream of Belet Weyne, have shown a consistent increase from 5.74 meters on May 5th to 6.66 meters as of today, May 15th, 2023. The current reading at Bulo Burti (6.66 metres) surpasses the moderate flood risk threshold (put at 6.50 metres) by 16 centimetres . In contrast, at Jowhar, the reading today (3.75 metres) is more than 1 metre below the moderate risk level. However, it is anticipated that the water level at Bulo Burti will reach the high flood risk level in approximately two days, as the flood wave continues its downstream movement from Belet Weyne. Nevertheless, the presence of multiple river breakages downstream of Belet Weyne could mean that some water may escape the channel before reaching Bulo Burti. This scenario reduces the magnitude of flooding in the town compared to the situation witnessed in Belet Weyne. It is important to note that the floodplains located upstream of Bulo Burti remain highly susceptible to flooding. No rainfall has been reported in both Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti over the past week. The weather forecast for the next three days, from May 15th to 17th, 2023, predicts dry conditions across Somalia. Only a light cumulative rainfall of approximately 10 mm is expected much farther upstream in the Ethiopian Highlands, within the Shabelle River catchment area. Despite the absence of recent rainfall, flooding persists in Belet Weyne. There still remains a high risk of flooding in Bulo Burti and the surrounding floodplains. It is crucial for communities residing near riverbanks and low-lying areas to exercise utmost caution and take all necessary precautions to ensure their safety.

Light rainfall is expected over most parts of Somalia with moderate rains over isolated areas in northeastern and dry conditions over southwestern parts of the country during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is likely over Bari region particularly Iskushuban district, southern parts of Calulla district, eastern parts of Qandala district and southern parts of Bandarbeyle district. Moderate rains are also expected in isolated areas in the northwestern part of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region and over the areas on the border between Garowe and Eyl districts in Nugaal region. In the central regions, rains of similar amounts are expected over Cadale district in Middle Shabelle region, southern parts of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region, Qoryooley district and eastern parts of Kurtunwaarey and Baarawe districts in Lower Shabelle region. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected over several areas in the Country with a tendency towards moderate over eastern parts of Bari region, northern parts of Sanaag region, Garowe and Eyl districts in Nugaal region, Ceel District in Galgaduud region, Cadale and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region, and several areas in Lower Shabelle region. Light rains are also expected over Central BeletWeyne district and Jalalaqsi district in Hiraan region. Dry conditions are expected in the southwestern parts of the country particularly over Gedo, Bakool and some parts of Hiraan regions including areas at their border with Bay region. Dry conditions are also likely in Mudug region particularly over Galdogob district, Gaalkacyo district and its border with Hobyo district. In Awdal region, dry conditions are expected over the northern parts of Zeylac and Lughaye districts. Similar conditions are likely over eastern part of Berbera in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Areas in the coastal strip of Bossaso, Qandala and Calulla districts in Bari region area also likely to remain dry. Moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C are expected over several areas in the southern and northeastern parts of the country. Temperatures as low as 20°C are likely over some areas in the southern parts of Aw Woqooyi Galbeed regions, Sheikh district in northern Togdheer region and Ceerigaabo in Sanaag region and northern parts of Qandala district in Bari region. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°C are expected in in Hiraan, Galgaduud, mudug, Nugaal, and Sool regions, southern and eastern parts of Bari region, and northern parts of both Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed regions. Similar temperatures copnditions are also likely over Dollow and Luuq districts in Gedo region. Temperatures as high as 36°C are likely over eastern parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region.