Vey light rainfall expected over the Berbera district in the northeastern parts of the project area, with dry conditions prevailing in the other areas. Weather Review for the Period 14th to 20th November 2023 During the period under review, rainfall of at least 1 mm was observed in thirty-four (34) stations, as illustrated in Graph 1. This marks an increase from the previous week's thirteen (13) stations with recorded rainfall. Twenty stations (20) reported cumulative rainfall exceeding 30 mm. The specific stations, their respective rainfall totals and rainy days are as follows: Laas Dawaco (122 mm in 2 days), Bulohar (110 mm in 2 days), Gacan_libah (97 mm in 3 days), Malawle (75 mm in 2 days), Gargara (61 mm in 1 days), Baligubadle (59 mm in 2 days), Gerisa (58.5 mm in 2 days), Berbera (56 mm in 2 days), Hargeisa (55 mm in 2 days), Salaxley (53 mm in 2 days), Xeego (50 mm in 2 days), Garbodadar (47.5 mm in 1 days), Lughaye (46 mm in 3 days), Sayla (45 mm in 1 days), Dhubato (43.5 mm in 2 days), Cadaadley (35 mm in 1 days), Dararweyne (34.5 mm in 3 days), Geedeble (34 mm in 1 days), Zaila (34 mm in 2 days), and Taysa (33 mm in 2 days). Having been recorded on one of the days of the week under review, the rains over Bulohar (70 mm), Laas_Dawaco (68 mm), Gargara (61 mm) and Gacan_libah (56 mm) were the most intense. The best three-days rainfall distribution was achieved over Gacan_libah, (97 mm), Lughaye (46 mm) and Dararweyne (34.5 mm). Weather Forecast for the Period 22nd to 28th November 2023 Rainfall Forecast: The weather forecast indicates very light rainfall of between 2 and 5 mm over the northeastern parts of the project area. These areas include western parts of Berbera, Banmadar and Cabdi Geeddi in the eastern part of Baki district; Ceel Lay Heelay, Bildhaaley, Bodale and Daradawanley in the northern part of Hargeisa district. Dry conditions with chances of rainfall less than 2 mm will prevail over the rest of the project areas. Temperature Forecast: Milder temperature of 20 ℃ to 25 ℃ is expected over some areas in the south of Gebiley district and in the southwest of Hargeisa district. Comparatively higher temperature of between 30 ℃ and 35 ℃ is anticipated in Lughaye district and some areas in the northeastern parts of Baki district. Moderate temperatures of between 25 ℃ to 30 ℃ are expected to prevail over the rest of the project areas.

In the next week heavy rainfall is expected over parts of Gedo, Bay, and Galgaduud regions, and moderate to heavy rainfall over most other parts of the country. Dry conditions with chances of isolated light rainfall are however expected in Bari region. Much of the forecast rains over Galgaduud and Bay regions are likely to be received between 15th and 17th November 2023. The spatio-temperal variation of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) is described below: • Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over the western areas of Gedo Specifically in Ceel Waaq, Belet Xaawo, isolated parts of Luuq, Dollow, and Garbahaarey. Likewise, Baydhaba in Bay, along with parts of Xuddur, Tayeeglow, and Waajid bordering Bay in the Bakool region, are expected to experience similar intense rainfall. In Galgaduud, comparable weather conditions are expected, particularly over Cabudwaaq and Cadaado. Additionally, isolated areas in Hiraan and Sanaag are also likely to encounter heavy rainfall during this period. The Ethiopian highlands is also expected to receive high to moderate rainfall over the forecast period • Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is forecast over extensive areas in Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, and Mudug regions. Similar conditions are also anticipated in the northwestern regions of the country, particularly over Lughaye and Baki in Awdal, the northern areas of Gebilley, Sheikh in Togdheer, extensive parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, as well as Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigavo in the Sanaag region. • Light rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over several areas in Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle regions, parts of Dinsor and Burhakabar in Bay region, Jalalaqsi in Hiraan region, Ceel Buur, Ceel Dheere and parts of Dhuusamarreeb in Galgaduud, extensive part of Mudug, Nuugal, Bari, Sool, Sanaag regions, Zeylac and Borama in Awdal region, Hargeisa and Southern parts of Gebilley in Woqooyi Galbeed, Burco, Buuhodle and most parts of Odweyne in Togheer, most parts of Bosasso, Qandala, Coastal parts of Callula, Isolated pasts of Iskushuban and Qardho in Bari region. • Dry conditions are expected over isolated areas in Sanaag, Taleex, Qardo, Iskushuban, Callula, extensive parts of Bandarbeyla, northern parts of Eyl and Isolated parts of Lower Juba.

Juba River Catchment Over the past three days, there has been a notable increase in both the amount and intensity of rainfall in the Gedo region and the Ethiopian highlands. The current water levels along the Juba River are now only 8 cm below bankful level at Dollow, 14 cm at Luuq, and under 40 cm at Bardheere. The ongoing heavy rainfall, coupled with the forecasted moderate rains in the next 24 hours, with an accumulation of approximately 150 mm over the next three days across Gedo, are expected to cause the river level to reach bankful height. This presents a high risk of riverine flooding along the entire stretch of the Juba River. Additionally, there is a high risk of flash flooding in the Gedo region, particularly in the Garbahaarey district within the next 24 hours. Residents in Deeday, Buulo Oomin, Tuutees, and Dhayba should take all necessary precautions to ensure their safety. Necessary anticipatory action should be taken. Shabelle River Catchment There has been a slight increase in water levels along the Shabelle River. The water levels are currently just 8.0 cm, 50.0 cm and 70.0 cm below the moderate flood risk levels at Beletweyne, Bulo Burte and Jowhar, respectively. The runoff from forecast moderate rains within the catchment over the next three days in HirShabelle, is likely to lead to a gradual rise in water levels with moderate risk of flooding along the Shabelle River. There are also reports of high flood wave approaching the Somali-Ethiopia border which is projected to lead to a significant river level rise in 3 to 4 days. Flash Floods Within the next 24 hours, heavy rains are anticipated over most areas of Bakool and Bay regions. As a result, there is a high risk of flash flooding in low-lying and vulnerable areas, particularly in Buur Hakabar, Diinsoor, Qansax Dheere, and Baydhaba districts in Bay, as well as Waajid and Ceel Barde districts in Bakool. Most parts of Middle Juba, including areas around Jilib, are expected to receive rainfall exceeding 100 mm, with coastal areas of Jilib experiencing particularly high amounts of over 200 mm, posing a significant risk of flash floods especially around Jiirta and Kuunyo-Burrow. Similarly, areas along the border of Hobyo and Jariiban districts in Mudug are likely to receive rainfall exceeding 200 mm, potentially leading to flash floods over Xingaras, Dhinooda, Ceel Dhahanaan, and Ceel Bacduur. Residents around the mentioned areas should take precautionary measures to ensure their safety.

Light rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over the coastal parts of Adan Yabaal, Cadale, and Balcad districts in Middle Shabelle region, as well as Banadir, coastal parts of Jilib district in Middle Juba region, Jamame, Kismayo, and Badhaadhe districts, and the border areas between Afmadow and Kismayo districts in Lower Juba region. Similarly light rains are also anticipated over areas bordering Bur Hakaba district in Bay region and Qoryooley district in Lower Shabelle region. Dry conditions are expected to prevail over the rest of the country in the upcoming week. Similar dry conditions are also expected over the Ethiopian Highlands. Temperature Forecast The current forecast indicates the likelihood of high temperatures ranging from 30 ℃ to 35 ℃ over extensive areas in the south, central and northeastern parts of the country. Milder temperatures ranging between 20 ℃ and 25 ℃ are anticipated over some areas in the following regions: Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer and Sanaag regions and inland parts of Bari region. Moderate temperatures of 25℃ to 30 ℃ will prevail over the rest of the country.

Between the 12th and 15th of November 2023, approximately 24,318 buildings, 562 km of roads and 14,697 Hectares of farms in Belet Weyne were flooded, as depicted on the map. The flood extents were identified through a comprehensive analysis, incorporating data from a modified Global Flood Model (GFM) based on Sentinel-1 image of November 14, 2023, visual interpretation of UNOSAT Beletweyne city extent data of November 12, 2023, and Sentinel-2 image of November 15, 2023. This inundation had a notable impact on the region, affecting 54% of buildings, 6% of the main road distance, and 41% of agricultural cropland. The data derived from this analysis offers a detailed overview of the extent and consequences of the flooding, facilitating a more informed understanding of the situation for effective response and mitigation efforts.

In the next one-week, heavy rainfall is expected over the coastal parts of Galmudug; moderate to heavy rainfall is likely over Gedo, parts of Bakool, Hiran, Lower Juba, and Middle Juba regions, and dry conditions with chances of isolated light rainfall in anticipated over Somaliland and Puntland (Map 1). The three -days forecast (Map 1) shows that much of the forecast rains over Mudug region are likely to be received between 8th and 10th November 2023. The spatio-temperal variation of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) is described below: • Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over several areas in the coastal parts of Galmudug state and in isolated areas in Jilib district in Middle Juba region, Garbaharey and Belet Xaawo districts in Gedo region, and Hudur and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool. The rains over the coastal parts of Galmudug are likely to be intense (more than 150 mm) with the localized storms over Ceel Dheer and Xarardheere districts cumulating to over 200 mm. • Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is forecast over several areas in Gedo region, Ceel Dheer and Ceel Buur districts in Galgadudd region, Xarardheere, Hobyo and Jaribaan districts in Mudug region, Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, and Hudur and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region. Towards the south, rainfall of similar amount is expected over several areas in Qansax Dheere and Dinsoor districts in Bay region, Jilib and Saakow districts in Middle Juba region, Jamaame district, southern parts of Badhaadhe district, western parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region. • Light to rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over several areas in Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle regions, Kismaayo district and central and eastern parts of Afmadow districts in Lower Juba region, central parts of Middle Juba region including Bualle district. Similar rains are also likely over Bur Hakaba abd Baydhaba districts in Bay region, Rab Dhuure, Waajid and Ceel Barde districts in Bakool region, BeletWeyne and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region. In the central parts of country, the areas that are expected to receive rains if similar intensities include: Cabudwaaq, Dhuusamareeb and Cadaado districts in Galgaduud region and Galdogob district in Mudug region. • Dry conditions are expected over expansive areas in Somaliland and Puntland, except Gaalkacyo district in Mudug region where isolated light rainfall is expected.

Somalia grapples with the looming impacts of an impending El Niño, exacerbating the ongoing climate change challenges. Recurrent riverine and flash floods, particularly in urban centers are of significant concern. Urgent action is needed to prepare for and mitigate the forthcoming El Niño floods, aiming to safeguard lives and mitigate economic losses. Key to this strategy is proactive flood management, involving timely evacuations to higher ground. Identifying suitable elevated areas serves a dual purpose, ensuring safety and facilitating aid delivery. In this regard a rigorous GIS & RS methodology by SWALIM considered nine crucial factors, such as historical flood extent, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, drainage density, strategic boreholes, settlements, land cover, and roads, to isolate higher grounds suitable for evacuation. The resulting maps show safe areas for evacuation in case of flooding, while exercising discretion considering factors like proximity to schools, healthcare facilities, pest prevalence and any other unforeseen factors

Moderate to heavy rains are expected over Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Gedo, Bakool and Hiraan regions. Given the general light rainfall activity in the next 7-days, much of the rains are likely to be observed between 28th and 31st October 2023. The spatio-temperal variation of the forecast rainfall is described below: Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is forecast over several areas in the central parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region and the northern parts of Owdweyne district in Togdheer region, central parts of Gedo region, Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, and Saakow district in Middle Juba region. Heavy localized rains over these areas are likely to exceed 150 mm with possible cumulative amounts of about 200 mm in Wogooyi Galbeed, northern parts of Owdweyne district in Togdheer region and Bulo Burte in Hiraan region. Very heavy rainfall of above 200 mm is likely over the upper catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Ethiopian Highlands. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over Baki district in Awdal region, southern parts, Sheikh and Berbera districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region, northern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region, Ceel Afwyene and Ceerigaabo districts in Sanaag region, and Bosasso district in Bari region. Moderate rains are also anticipated over several areas in both Gedo and Bakool regions, Saakow district in Middle Juba region, and Bur Hakaba district in Bay region. In the central parts of the country, rainfall of similar amounts is likely over Gaalkacyo in Mudug region, Cabuudwaaq in Galgaduud region, Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, and Cadale and Balcad districts in middle Shabelle region. Light rainfall of below 50 mm is likely over the rest of the country except for the following areas where dry conditions are expected to prevail: several areas in Bari, Lower Juba and Middle Shabelle regions, southern parts of Bay region, non-coastal parts of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region, non-coastal parts of Xarardheere district in Mudug region, Garowe district and coastal parts of Eyl district in Nugaal region, and Las Anod district. Temperature Forecast: Elevated temperatures between 35°C and 45°C are likely over Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, southern parts of Dinsor and Bur Hakaba districts in Bay region, Jowhar district in Middle Shabelle region, and Sheikh district in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Milder temperatures of between 20°C and 25°C are likely over the highlands in central parts of Sanaag region and northern parts of Bari regions. The rest of the country is expected to observe moderate temperatures between 25°C and 35°C.

Moderate to heavy rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is anticipated in the northern regions of the country, especially in proximity to Gebiley, Hargeisa, and areas adjacent to the Ethiopian border in Woqooyi Galbeed. Part of Togheer region is expected to experience similar high amount of rainfall especially Sheikh, Odweyn and Buuhoodle districts. In Sanaag region the highest amount of rainfall within the forecast period is expected in Ceel Afweyn and Erigavo districts. Areas around Qardho and Qandala in Bari, as well as Garowe and Burtinle in Nugaal, should anticipate a comparable pattern. Rainfall of comparable amounts is also likely to be observed in many parts of Sool region with chances of heavier storms localized over Xudun, Taleex, and Buuhodle districts. Other parts of the country expected to receive moderate to heavy rainfall include Galkayo and Hobyo in Mudug, Waajid in Bakool, Diinsor in Bay, and Bualle in Middle Juba Region. It is important to point out that rainfall of similarly moderate to heavy amounts is forecast over the Ethiopian highlands. Within Somalia, the heaviest precipitation is projected to occur during the initial three days of the forecast period especially in the northern parts of the country. Light to moderate rainfall is anticipated in Ceel Waaq and Luuq districts in Gedo, Baydhaba in Bay, extensive areas of Bakool, parts of Hiraan particularly Jalalaqsi and Bulo Burti districts, Ceel Buur and Cabudwaaq in Galgaduud, and most parts of western Muduug. The rest of the country is likely to experience scattered light showers throughout the week as per the forecast.

The Food and Agriculture Organization’s Somalia Water and Land Information Management (FAO SWALIM) Project, has finalized the analysis and mapping of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle rivers using very high resolution satellite imagery. Breakages identified in the map have been classified into four different categories; Open, Overflow, Canal Flooding Point and Closed with sandbags. A legend/Key for further explanation of the different types of breakages is provided. A total of 170 Open points, 46 Canal flooding points, 152 Overflow points and 29 points closed with sandbags have been identified along the Shabelle River while 26 Open points, 10 Canal flooding points, 16 Overflow points and 14 points closed with sandbags have been identified along the Juba River which require immediate attention. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have also been identified. The forecast ElNino season is likely to result to enhanced rainfall in Somalia and Ethiopian Highlands with high potential of flooding over the Juba and Shabelle rivers especially where open and potential points have been identified. There is therefore an immediate need to close the open points and reinforce areas where there are weak river embankments. Intervening agencies are advised to take advantage of the current dry period until the rains start and carry out temporary or long term measures to close the river breakages. This will see a reduction of riverine flooding in case of heavy rains and consequently a massive reduction in economic losses to the country.