Weekly Rainfall Forecast: According to ICPAC, during the week between 28 May to 3 June 2024, dry conditions are expected in most inland parts of the country with chances of light rainfall over coastal parts of the southern regions (Map 1). Given that this forecast week represents the transition out of the Gu season, it is important to mention that, according to ICPAC, above-normal Hagaa rainfall conditions are expected over Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, and Awdal regions. On the other hand, Togdheer and Sool-Sanaag regions are likely to experience drier-than-normal Hagaa conditions. Evolution of Rainfall Drivers: As the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts further north, its impact on the Gu rains across the country begins to diminish ushering in Hagaa season. As the ITCZ shifts further north, a low-pressure system will be set up in Indian Sub-continent triggering the Southwest monsoon winds. As the winds blow from land into the Ocean (westerly land breeze) between 3:00 am and 9:00 am in the morning they converge with the prevailing easterly winds aiding lifting of warm and moist air causing the morning showers observed and forecast over the coastal parts of southern regions including Banadir. The forecast shift in the position of Madden Julian Oscillation’s (MJO) index from the Indian Ocean re-affirms the forecast dry conditions inland and a reduction in the intensity of the morning coastal showers in the coming days. This shift is also likely to lead to a reduction in the cyclonic activity in the southwestern Indian Ocean and favor such disturbances in the northern Indian Ocean particularly Bay of Bengal.

During the week from the 2nd to 8th April 2024, the onset of the Gu rains is likely to be observed with moderate rainfall expected over some places in the following regions: Lower Juba, Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Lower Shabelle, Awdal, and Woqooyi Galbeed regions. Dry conditions are likely to be observed over most parts of Galmudug and Puntland. The cloudiness and rains in the northern parts of the country are likely to result from the north easterly winds being orographically lifted by the east-west oriented mountain ranges. The anticipated progression of the rains from Jubaland into South West is favored by the northward movement of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Heavy cumulative rainfall between 100 m and 150 mm is expected over some places in the western parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, the northern parts of Qansax Dheere district in Bay region, and western parts of Rab Dhuure in Bakool region. It is noteworthy that such projected heavy rains will fall within the catchment of Juba River. Moderate cumulative rainfall between 50 mm and 100 mm is forecast over most places in the western parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, central parts of Baardheere district, western parts of Ceel Waaq district, eastern parts of Garbahaarey district and northern parts of Luuq district in Gedo region, northern parts of Qansax Dheere district in Bay region, western parts of Rab Dhuure district in Bakool region, and western parts of Sablaale and Baraawe districts in Lower Shabelle region. In the north, similarly moderate rains are anticipated over most places in Borama district and southern parts of Baki district in Awdal region, Gebiley district and western parts of Hargeysa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, and northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most places in Middle Juba and Middle Shabelle regions including Banadir, most of the other places in Lower Juba region including Jamaame district, most of the other places in Gedo region including Belet Xaawo and Doolow districts, most of the other places in Bay region including Baydhaba district and western parts of Buur Hakaba district, most of the other places in Bakool region including Waajid, Xudur and Tayeeglow districts and central and western parts of Cee Barde district, and most of the other places in Lower Shabelle including Kurtunwaarey and Qoryooley districts. Light rainfall is also expected over most parts of Hiraan region and coastal parts of both Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region and Xarardheere district in Mudug region. In the north, rainfall of similar amount is expected over most of the other places in Borama and southern parts of both Baki and Zeylac districts in Awdal region, most of the other places in Gebiley and Hargeysa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region, and most of the other northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Cel Afweyn districts in Sanaag region. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over vast areas in the north including Bari, Sool, and Nugaal regions, Laasqoray district and central and southern parts of both Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigaabo districts in Sanaag region, Lughaye district and northern parts of both Zeylac and Baki districts in Awdal region, and Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Dry conditions are also expected in the central parts of the country including most inland parts of Mudug region, Cabudwaaq, Cadaado, and Dhuusamareeb districts in Galgaduud region, central and northern parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region, and the areas in Afgoye-Wanla Weyn districts’ boundary in Lower Shabelle.

During the week between 10 and 16 April 2024, and based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, light to moderate rains is predicted over several isolated areas in Jubaland, Southwest and Galgaduud with dry conditions in Somaliland and Puntland. It is important to point out that ICPAC’s forecast based on WRF anticipates wetter conditions particularly over Gedo region. The chances of wetter conditions might be supported by the prolonged presence of MJO index over the Indian Ocean region. This stagnation of the MJO over this region indicates the presence of heavy rainfall producing conditions. The prevalent dry conditions over most parts of Puntland are likely to be driven by the low-level easterly winds blowing parallel to the coastline and therefore limiting the injection of water vapor inland. The anticipated spread of the rains from Jubaland into South West and possibly Galgaduud is favored by the northward movement of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall are as follows: Heavy cumulative rainfall between 100 m and 150 mm is likely over some isolated areas over Jubaland. Based on consensus such heavy rainfall is anticipated over Kismaayo district in Lower Juba region and, Bardheere and Ceel Waaq districts in Gedo region. According to ICPAC’s forecast, the rains over Ceel Waaq district might be particularly heavy accumulating to above 150 mm. It is noteworthy that such projected heavy rains will fall within the catchment of Juba River. Moderate cumulative rainfall between 50 mm and 100 mm is likely over very isolated areas in Jubaland, Dinsoor and Qansax Dheere districts in Bay region, Sablaale, Baraawe, Wanla Weyne and Afgoye districts in Lower Juba region, Jowhar and Balcad districts in Middle Shabelle region. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most other places in Jubaland, South West, Hirshabelle and Galgaduud. Isolated light rains are also likely over some areas in the northern parts of the country particularly the windward sides of the mountainous and hilly areas. Such rains are likely over Borama district and southern parts of both Baki and Zeylac districts in Awdal region, and Qandala district in Bari region. Based on consensus, dry conditions are likely to prevail over vast areas in Puntland and the other places in Somaliland. Specifically, such dry conditions are likely over most areas of the following regions: Mudug, Nugaal, Bari, Sool, Sanaag, Togdheer and Woqqoyi Galbeed. Some forecasts also anticipated dry conditions over some areas in Hirshabelle and Bakool region. Temperature Forecast: Most parts of the country particularly southern and central parts are expected to observe moderately high temperatures of between 35 ℃ and 40 ℃. However, both exceptionally elevated (above 40 ℃) and remarkably moderate temperatures (below 30 ℃) are likely in some areas. Elevated temperatures above 40 ℃ are likely over some parts of Sheikh district in Woqooyi Galbeed region and Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region. Moderate temperatures of between 30 ℃ and 35 ℃ are likely some places in the north and the south and along the coastlines including the entire eastern coastline. Such temperatures are expected over most parts of Sanaag region particularly in Ceerigaabo district, most parts of southern Woqooyi Galbeed region particularly in Hargeisa district, and most parts of Borama district and southern parts of Baki district in Awdal region. In the south, these conditions are likely over Ceel Waaq district in Gedo region, Baydhaba district, eastern parts of Qansax Dheere district and northern parts of Dinsoor district in Bay region. Temperatures less than 30 ℃ are likely over the elevated areas in the north including places in Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region and Qandala district in Bari region.

During the week between 18 and 24 April 2024, and based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, moderate to heavy rains are expected over several areas in the South West and Hirshabelle States with chances of very heavy rains over some areas in Bay and Sool-Sanaag regions. Light to moderate rain is expected over vast inland areas of Puntland with tendency of general dry conditions over the coastal areas of Bari and Nugaal regions. The chances of wetter conditions might be supported by the stagnation of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index over the eastern parts of Indian Ocean. The small amplitude of the index however signifies weak cycles of the MJO. This therefore is associated with decreased skill and reliability of extended range forecasts. The tendency of general dry conditions over Bari is likely to be driven by the low-level easterly winds blowing parallel to the northeastern coastline which limits the incursions of precipitable water inland. The anticipated northward spread of the rains from South West into Hirshabelle and possibly Galgaduud is favored by the northward movement of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: • Very heavy cumulative rainfall between 150 mm and 200 mm is likely over some areas in Dinsoor, Baydhaba and Buur Hababa districts in Bay region, southwestern parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, northwestern parts of Ceel Buur district in Galgaduud region, northern parts of Qardho district in Bari region, Xudun and Taleex district sin Sool region, southern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region, and southern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region. The rains over isolated areas in the above parts of Bay, Sool and Sanaag regions may be very intense leading to more than 200 mm in cumulative terms and are likely to fall between 18 and 21 April 2024 with likelihood of flash flooding. • Heavy cumulative rainfall between 100 mm and 150 mm is likely over the following areas: Dinsoor, Baydhaba and Buur Hababa districts in Bay region, Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, northwestern parts of Ceel Buur district in Galgaduud region, northern parts of Qardho district in Bari region, Xudun and Taleex district sin Sool region, southern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region, and southern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region. Such rains are alkso expected over southern parts of both Sablaale and Kurtunwaarey districts in Lower Shabelle region, eastern parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region, northwen parts of Qandala district in Bari region, northern parts of Laasqoray district and northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region, Moderate cumulative rainfall between 50 mm and 100 mm is likely over the rest of the areas in Bay and Sanaag regions, the rest of the areas in Xudun and Taleex district in Sool region, the rest of the areas in southern Burco district in Togdheer region, several areas in Lower Shabelle region, Ceel Waaq and Bardheere districts in Gedo region, Qansax Dheere district in Bay region, Balcad district in Middle Shabelle region, Qandala district and northern parts of Qardho district in Bari region, and over an area confined to the southern Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over several areas in Lower Juba, Mudug and Nugaal, Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed regions, the rest of the areas in Gedo and Bari regions, Jowhar, Cadale and Adan Yabaal districts in Middel Shabelle region. Such rains are likely over Borama districtareas in Gedo and Bari regions, Jowhar, Cadale and Adan Yabaal districts in Middel Shabelle region. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over vast coastal areas in Nugaal and Bari region, Zeylac district and northern parts of both Lughaye and Baki districts in Awdal region, Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, and Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region. Temperature Forecast: Moderately high temperatures of between 35 ℃ and 40 ℃ are likely over Lower and Middle Juba regions, Galgaduud, Mudug and Bari regions, Dollow and Luuq districts in Gedo region, Sablaale and Wanla Weyn districts in Middle Shabelle region, southern parts fo both Dinsoor and Buur Hakaba districts in Bay region, western parts of both Belet Weyne and Bulo Burte districts in Hiraan region, Garowe district in Nugaal region, Sheikh district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, Zeylac and Lughaye districts and northern parts of Baki district in Awdal region. Moderate temperatures of between 30 ℃ and 35 ℃ are likely the rest of the country except over Qandala in Bari region, Ceerigaabo in Sanaag region and northern parts of Odweyne in Togdheer region where temperatures less than 30 ℃ are anticipated.

During the week between 24 and 30 April 2024, and based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, Light to Moderate rains are expected over the vast majority area in Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool and Nugaal Regions. Most parts of Awdal, Sanaag, and Bari Regions will be dry over the forecast period. Along the coastal areas of Mudug, Galgadud and Middle Shabelle light rains are anticipated, while the rest of the country will receive moderate to heavy rains in the coming week. The chances of wet conditions are supported by the stagnation of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index over the eastern parts of Indian Ocean over the last 10 days. The small amplitude of the index however signifies weak cycles of the MJO. This therefore is associated with decreased skill and reliability of extended range forecasts. The tendency of general dry conditions over Bari and Sanaag Regions is likely to be driven by the low-level easterly winds blowing parallel to the northeastern coastline which limits the incursions of precipitable water inland. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: • Very heavy cumulative rainfall between 150 mm and 200 mm is likely over some areas in western parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiran region, and Baydhaba district in Bay region. Other parts of the country likely to receive the very heavy rainfall are Buale in Middle Juba Region, Garbahaarey in Gedo Region, and south of Burco in Togdheer Region. The heavy rains are likely to fall between 24 and 28 April 2024 with likelihood of flash flooding. • Heavy cumulative rainfall between 100 mm and 150 mm is likely over the following areas: Galkacayo in Mudug region, Dhuusamareeb in Galgaduud region, southern parts of Beletweine in Hiran region, Baydhaba in Bay region, Bu’aale in Middle Jubba, Kismayo in Lower Jubba, Garbaharey in Gedo region, Such rains are also expected over Burao in Togdheer region, and western parts of Hargeisa in Waqooyi-Galbed region. • Moderate cumulative rainfall between 50 mm and 100 mm is likely over most areas of Mudug and Galgaduud regions, parts of Xudun and Taleex district sin Sool region, several areas in Lower Shabelle region, Ceel Waaq and Bardheere districts in Gedo region, Qansax Dheere district in Bay region, Balcad district in Middle Shabelle region, Qandala district and northern parts of Qardho district in Bari region, and over an area confined to the southern Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed. • Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over vast majority areas in Waqoyi-Galbeed, southern parts of Burao, and Las’anod districts in Togdheer and Sool regions, Baki district in Awdal region, Erigavo district in Sanaag region, western parts of Garowe, Southeastren parts of Galkacayo in Mudug region. Such rains are likely over the most areas in southern and coastal parts of Mudug, Galgaduud, and Middle Shabelle regions. • Dry conditions are likely to prevail over vast coastal areas in Nugaal and Bari region, Zeylac district and northern parts of both Lughaye and Baki districts in Awdal region, and eastern parts of Garowe and Las,anod districts in Nugaal and Sool regions, and southern parts of Jowhar district.

This forecast period marks the transition from the tail-end of Jilal to the forecast Gu season onset. Based on NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS), moderate to heavy rains are expected over most parts of Somaliland, Jubaland, South West, Hirshabelle, and Galgaduud with dry conditions likely to continue over most parts of Puntland. The cloudiness and rains in the northern parts of the country are likely to be mediated by the north easterly winds ascending the east-west oriented elevations. While patches of clouds and isolated rains are likely over the elevated areas in Sanaag and Bari, the intensity of the rains over Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed on the windward sides of the Harage Highlands across the Ethiopian border. The forecast rains in the southwestern parts of the country are likely to be driven by the arrival of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and therefore signal the onset of Gu rains. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Heavy cumulative rainfall between 100 mm and 150 mm is forecast over western parts of Badhaadhe district and central parts of Kismaayo district in Lower Juba region, central areas of Bardheere district and northern areas of Luuq district in Gedo region, central areas of Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region, eastern parts of Dhuusamareeb district in Galgaduud region and eastern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region. The rains over isolated places in these areas particularly Badhaadhe in Lower Juba, Bardheere and Luuq districts in Gedo region and Dhuusamareeb district in Galgaduud region are likely to be more intense leading up to more than 150 mm. As the week progresses the very heavy rains over Bardheere district in Gedo region are likely to sum up to more than 200 mm. It is noteworthy that such rains are likely to fall within the in-country catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Moderate cumulative rainfall of between 50 m and 100 mm is expected over most places in the following areas: Badhaadhe, Kismaayo and Jamaame districts in Lower Juba region, Bardheere and Luuq districts in Gedo region, Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region, Dhuusamareeb district in Galgaduud region, Burco district in Togdheer region, Gebiley district and western parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, Baki and Borama districts in Awdal region. Moderate rains are also likely over Jilib district in Middle Juba region, Garbahaarey district in Gedo region, Qansax Dheere district in Bay region, Tayeeglow district in Bakool region, Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, Sheikh district in Togdheer, Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, and Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region. The rains in the northern parts of the country particularly those over the northern border between Gebiley and Hargeisa districts are likely to be observed earlier between 27th and 29th March 2024. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most of the other places in Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Lower Juba, Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Hiraan, and Galgaduud regions. Light rainfall is also likely over most parts of central and northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region and a few places in Bosasso and Qandala districts in Bari region. It is important to point out that the rains over the upper catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers will be light to moderate in intensity. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over vast areas in Mudug region, Nugaal region, Sool region and Bari region. Dry conditions are also expected over a few places in the following areas: Ceel Afweyn and Laasqoray distrcist in Sanaag region, Cabudwaaq and Ceel Dheer districts in Galgaduud, Balcad district in Middle Shabelle, Qoryooley, Sablaale and Baraawe districts in Lower Shabelle, eastern parts of Bu’aale district in Middle Jubas, northern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region.

The Food and Agriculture Organization’s Somalia Water and Land Information Management (FAO SWALIM) Project, has finalized the analysis and mapping of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle rivers using very high resolution satellite imagery. Following the El Niño-induced widespread floods of 2023, there have been an up surge in reported open breakages. A total of 190 Open breakage points, 76 Canal flooding points, 518 River overflow points and 23 points closed with sandbags have been identified along the Shabelle River while 109 Open breakage points, 1 Canal flooding points, 226 River overflow points and 5 points closed with sandbags have been identified along the Juba River which require immediate attention. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have also been identified. The forecast above average rainfall during the coming Gu season is likely to lead to high potential of flooding over the Juba and Shabelle rivers especially where open and potential points have been identified. There is therefore an immediate need to close the open points and reinforce areas where there are weak river embankments. Intervening agencies are advised to take advantage of the current dry period until the rains start and carry out temporary or long term measures to close the river breakages. This will see a reduction of riverine flooding in case of heavy rains and consequently a massive reduction in economic losses to the country.

According to the Seasonal Climate Forecast issued by IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), there is a 55% likelihood that above normal rainfall (wetter than normal conditions) will be observed over most parts of Somalia. In the south these above normal rains are likely over Gedo, Bay, and most parts of Bakool regions. In the north, chances of above normal Gu rains are particularly high over Bari, Nugaal, Sool, Sanaag and Awdal regions, Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, and the southern parts of Togdheer region. Above normal rains are also likely over Mudug and Galgaduud regions in the central parts of the country, there is 40 – 50 % likelihood above normal rains over Hiraan region and extensive coastal parts of the following regions: Lower Juba, Middle Juba, and Lower Shabelle.

This week marks the equinox; a period of the year during which the Earth’s axis is tilted neither towards the north nor south resulting in a “nearly” equal amount of daylight and darkness at all latitudes. The apparent position of the overhead Sun is expected to be generally over the celestial equator, which cuts through the country over Lower Juba region from Alabakuus in Jamaame district to Jana Cabdalle in Afmadow district, today 20th March 2024. Therefore, today and for several days afterwards, the length of day will range from about 12 hours and six and one-half minutes at the equator and the surrounding areas over Lower Juba region. Based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry weather conditions are expected throughout the country particularly between 20th and 22nd March 2024. The weekly forecast indicates likelihood of moderate rains over the Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed and Lower Juba regions in between 22nd and 26th March 2024 (Figure 1). The cloudiness and rains in the northern parts of the country are likely to be mediated by the north easterly winds ascending the east-west oriented elevations. While patches of clouds and isolated rains are likely over the elevated areas in Sanaag and Bari, the intensity of the rains over Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed on the windward sides of the Harage Highlands across the Ethiopian border. The forecast rains in the southwestern parts of the country are likely to be driven by the arrival of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and therefore signal the onset of Gu rains. This week may therefore mark the end of dry conditions which was attributed to reduced moisture influx due to the delays in the northward movement of rain-bearing ITCZ because of the lower-level cyclonic circulation associated with tropical cyclone Filipo in the Mozambique channel. Moderate rains are therefore likely over the southwestern parts of Somalia during the first week of April 2024. As a demonstration of the intense insolation associated with the present position of the overhead Sun, elevated temperatures of above 40°C are expected over southwestern parts of Somalia. While such is associated with thermal discomfort, it is the lifting of this hot and moist airmass that will precipitate into the rains in the coming days. Most parts of the country are likely to observe generally warm conditions of between 30°C and 40°C with only elevated areas in Ceerigaabo and areas in the northern coastal strip recording less than 30°C.

Several key findings have been obtained following a review of the 2023 Deyr (October-November-December) seasonal rainfall. Heavy cumulative rainfall was observed over the south and central parts of the country with a substantial 1,152 mm being recorded in Baidoa in Bay region representing five times of the station’s Long-Term Mean (LTM). The rainfall was even much heavier in Berbera in Wooqoyi Galbeed Region where the amount was 26 times the LTM. The Deyr rains began in early October over parts of Somaliland and central parts of Puntland spreading southwards to Gedo and Bay-Bakool regions. However, there was a sharp end to the Deyr rains particularly over Puntland and Somaliland with no single rainy day observed in Puntland in December. There was more than 30 consecutive dry days in almost all the stations in the country between 1st October and 31st December 2023. The observed rainfall amounts, and the length of wet spells particularly over the Juba and Shabelle River basins within the country were 100% in agreement with the forecast. The onset of Deyr rains across the country was also generally in agreement with the forecast with most of the stations realizing onset within a week of the forecast date.