Most parts of the country are expected to receive less than 50 mm of cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spread of the cumulative rainfall amounts are as follows: Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several parts of Lower and Middle Juba, Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Lower and Middle Shabele, Sanaag, and Togdheer regions, southern and central parts of Hiraan region, central areas of Galgaduud region, and isolated areas in northern Bari region, central and western parts of Sool region. Moderate rains of between 50 mm and 100 mm is predicted over isolated areas in the north-western parts of the country. Such rains are expected in the southern parts of Awdal, central and southern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, localized areas in western and northern parts of Sanaag region, western parts of Gedo region and southwestern parts of Lower Juba region. Heavy rains of between 100 mm and 150 mm are likely over Isolated pockets in Baki and Borama districts in Awdal region, and southern parts of Gebiley in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Dry conditions are expected in central parts of the country including most areas in Nugaal and Mudug regions, northern areas of Hiraan and Galgaduud regions, southern areas of Bari region and eastern areas of Sool region. Moderate temperatures of between 20 °C and 32 °C are expected over most parts of Somalia. However, cold conditions with temperatures less than 20 °C are expected over isolated areas in northern parts of the country particularly the parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sanaag and Bari regions.

FAO-SWALIM, the Somalia Water and Land Information Management, has completed an analysis and mapping project of river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle rivers. The project utilized Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to identify and classify the breakages into four categories: open, canal flooding, overflow, and closed with sandbags. The open breakages are those that are currently open and were observed on the latest VHR image available. The observations reported refer to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. The map identified a total of 62 open breakage points, 36 on the Shabelle River and 26 on the Juba River, which require immediate attention. In addition, 15 overflow points and 39 canal flooding points were identified during this season. The Horn of Africa region has experienced five consecutive poor rainy seasons, resulting in severe hydrological drought conditions in Somalia and neighboring countries. The Juba and Shabelle rivers, which have their headwaters in the Ethiopian highlands, have remained near or below the long-term average since the beginning of 2023, negatively impacting agriculture production, domestic and livestock water use for the riverine communities. However, the low river levels provide an opportunity to repair the river breakages and weak embankments before the next rainy season. It is important to note that the methodology used in this analysis, is biased towards remote sensing interpretation, with limited "ground truthing" due to difficulties in accessing the areas. Open breakages may have been omitted or classified as potential in some cases where satellite images were unavailable or not clear due to heavy cloud cover or dense vegetation.

Most parts of south and central Somalia have received moderate rains with good distribution over the last one week. In Bay and Bakool regions heavy rains were recorded in Baidoa recorded 144mm, Dinsoor 103.5mm, Quansadheere 66.4mm, Huddur 45.5mm and El barde 41mm over the last one week. Other places in the region where good rains were reported over the last week are Bulo burti 62mm, Bur Hakabar 50mm, Dollow 44.6mm, and Mataban 40mm. Somaliland and Puntland also continued to receive rains over the last one week, but the amounts were reduced compared the rainfall amounts recorded in the previous two weeks. The ongoing rains have contributed to a reduction of water stress, and pasture generation. However, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions as the amounts received are still inadequate to alleviate the condition. The rains need to be sustained for long period to sustain pasture and crop growth. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate to heavy rains in most parts of the Juba catchment within Somalia, the lower parts of Galgadud region, and along the Gulf of Aden Coast in Sanaag and Bari regions. The rest of the country is expected to receive scattered light to moderate rains. The Ethiopian highlands will receive heavy rains during the same forecast period. Juba river level has been rising steadily over the last one week, as a result of heavy rains in Ethiopia and within the Somalia. The levels reached high risk levels in Dollow and Bardhere, before starting to go down in the last 2 days. Shabelle river is also high, and above the short term mean. Given the rainfall forecast in the Ethiopian highlands and in Somalia, there is medium risk of flooding in both rivers, especially in sections with weak or open embankments.

Most parts of south and central Somalia received light to moderate rains over the last one week. Some of the stations that recorded good rainfall amounts in the past week include Bulo Burti 28mm, Balad 19mm, Bardheere 18mm, Luuq 13.5mm and Jowhar 9mm. Widespread rains were also received in Bay, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions during the week. In Somaliland and Puntland there has been a reduction in rainfall amounts with most stations recording little or no rains. Most regions in Somaliland and the southern parts of the country have experienced pasture regrowth and replenishment of water catchments, and this has led to a reduction in water and pasture stress. However, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions as the amounts received are still inadequate to alleviate the condition especially in sustaining pasture and crop growth. The central regions of Nugaal, Muudug, Galgaduud and southern parts of Bari region have not received any significant rains and the drought conditions are worsening by day. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate to heavy rains in the southern regions. The coastal areas of Somaliland and northern Puntland are also expected to receive moderate to heavy rains. Exceptional cumulative rains are foreseen in Awdal especially in areas bordering Djibouti, which may result to flash floods. The central regions and inland areas of Puntland will receive minimal rains during the forecast period. Ethiopian highlands will receive moderate rains during the week in focus. Given the rainfall forecast, the river levels in both Juba and Shebelle are expected to increase slightly towards the end of the week with no risk of flooding.

There was reduced rainfall activities across Somalia over the last one week. Few stations in Somaliland recorded moderate rains, including Las-Dawaco 83.5mm and Dhubato 35mm, while light rains were recorded in Dararweyne 14mm, Lughaye 14mm, Zaila 13mm and Xaji – Salah 12 mm. In Puntland Calulla station recorded 13.4mm. The rest of the country remained either dry or received light showers. As the Deyr season comes to the peak, more rains are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions across Somalia. The rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate rains across the central and southern regions of Somalia. Parts of Bay and Bakool regions will however receive heavy rains, of up to 100mm cumulatively, within the coming week. The northern parts of Bari and Sanaag regions will also receive heavy rains in the coming week. The rains will be more along the coast of Bari, where cumulatively 150—200mm of rains are expected within the next seven days. The risk of flash floods in these areas is high, resulting from the heavy rains. Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togheer, Sool and Nugal regions will be mainly dry over the forecast period. Scattered light showers may however be experienced in few places. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive light rains, while the lower parts, near the Somalia border, will receive moderate rains in the coming week. River levels along Juba and Shabelle continued to decrease over the last one week. Given the rainfall forecast, the levels in both rivers are expected to increase slightly within the coming week with no risk of flooding.

In the last one week most parts of Somaliland and Puntland remained dry with a few stations recording light rains (Bandar Beyla 19mm, Galkacyo 5mm, Balli Dhiddin 2.4 mm). Little or no rains were recorded in Central Somalia during the same period. The Deyr rains however continued in the southern regions. Some of the stations that have recorded significant rains include Belet-Weyne 65mm, Mataban 61mm, Mahas 36mm, Bulo-Burti 36mm, Bandar-Beyla 19mm, Bualle 18mm and Balcad 12mm. The rains received so far provide an immediate relief to water stress, but more rains are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions across Somalia. The rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate rains in most parts of southern Somalia while few pockets of the central areas will receive light showers. Similarly, the Shabelle and Juba upper reaches in Ethiopia will receive moderate rains during the forecast period. Pockets of Nugaal, Sool, Sanaag and the coast of Bari are expected to receive light to moderate rains during the same period. The rest of the country is expected to remain dry. River levels along Juba and Shabelle are currently within the average at this time of the year. Given the rainfall forecast, the levels in both rivers are expected to increase slightly within the coming week with no risk of flooding.

The last one week has been characterized by heavy rains in many parts of Somaliland and Puntland. As a result of the heavy rains Qardho experienced severe floods on 23rd October that led to destruction of infrastructure and property. Las Anod recorded a total of 104.0 mm in one day; while in the same week Caynabo received 91.0mm, Elafweyn 77.5mm, Dhahar 71.0mm, Eyl 74.0mm, Salaxley 63.5mm, Balidhiig 61mm, Las Dacawo 57mm, Talleh 48mm, Galkayo 48.0mm, Xasbahale 42.0mm, Burtinle 39.0mm, Dhubbato 38.0mm and Sheikh 36.0mm. Moderate rains were recorded in few stations in the central and southern regions, including Wanle Wayne 18.8mm and Mahas 15.5mm. Large parts of this region recorded light or no rains over the past one week. More rains with good intensity and distribution are required across the country to bring to an end the current drought conditions. The rains need to be sustained for long period, and more spatially distributed to sustain pasture and crop growth. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates heavy rains in Togdheer, Sool, Hiraan, Bakool and Galgaduud regions. Moderate rains are expected in the rest of the country save for the coastal areas of Bari region, and parts of Awdal region that may receive little or no rains. Middle and Lower Juba areas near the Kenyan border will also receive light rains, same with the coastal areas of Lower Shabelle region. The Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive heavy rains. Shabelle river level is currently high and given the rainfall forecast in the Ethiopian highlands, flooding may occur in sections with weak or open embankments. The risk is minimal along Juba river, as current levels are below average for this period.

The ongoing Karan rains /early kick off of Deyr seasonal rains continued to spread with intensity and in space over the last two weeks in the northern parts of Somalia with some stations recording 50mm to 100mm of cumulative rains. In particular, some of the stations that received good rains in both Puntland and Somaliland include; Las Anod 56mm, Baran 48mm, Burtinle 41mm, Xasbahale 37mm, Aburin 98mm, Dilla 97mm, Quljeed 71mm, Caynabo and Sheikh 48mm. Galckayo, in the central areas, received a total of 56mm while the rest of the country recorded little or no rains. The observed rains have contributed significantly to a reduction of water stress, especially in Hargeisa, Borama and Gebilley districts of Somaliland, but it will take sometime before the ongoing drought situation can be reversed. Other parts of Somaliland remains under severe drought conditions. Equally, immediate relief to water stress was realized in parts of Puntland following the rains; however, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to improve the current drought conditions. The central and southern regions continue to experience severe drought conditions. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate to heavy rains in Somaliland and Puntland. Most parts of the south and central areas will record light to moderate rains during the forecast period and areas bordering Ethiopia and Kenya will receive scattered showers. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands will also receive good rains. River levels along Juba and Shabelle rivers are currently below the short-term average. Given the rainfall forecast in the Ethiopian highlands, the river levels are expected to increase from the second week of October. Users are advised that this is a forecast, and there may be discrepancies between estimates and actual amounts of rainfall received. Information on the forecast and observed river levels is updated daily and can be found on this link: http://frrims.faoswalim.org.

The Deyr rains continued to spread in time and space over the last few days with many places in Somaliland and Puntland, especially those bordering Ethiopia recording significant rainfall amounts. Notably, some of the stations where good rains were recorded over the last one week include Las Anod 167mm, Balidhig 40.5mm, Xasbahale 83.0 mm, Burtinle 39.0 mm and Eyl 74.0 mm. Wanle Wayne, in the central Somalia received a total of 9.0 mm, while the rest of the region recorded little or no rains. The observed rains have provided immediate relief to water stress in these areas, temporarily improving the drought conditions. However, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions. The central and southern regions of Somalia are yet to receive any substantial rainfall, and severe drought conditions prevail. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates heavy rains in Somaliland and Puntland with the highest amounts expected in areas close to the Ethiopian border. Moderate rains are expected in most parts of the South and Central save for Gedo region and areas bordering Kenya which are expected to receive little or no rains. Given the rainfall experienced in the Ethiopian highlands during the last two weeks and rainfall forecast for the coming week, the Juba and Shabelle river levels are expected to continue rising over the forecast period.

Many parts of Awdal and the western areas of Woqooyi Galbeed in Somaliland continued to receive moderate to heavy rains over the last two weeks. Some stations that recorded good rains over that period include Taysa 95mm, Borama 75.5 mm, Gebilley 63mm, Aburin 59.5mm, Hargeisa 59mm and Magalo–Cad 48mm. The Karan rains in this region have so far been good, and if sustained would provide relief to the current drought conditions. Other parts of Somaliland remained dry. In Puntland dry conditions prevailed except for light scattered showers in Iskushuban, Baran and Buuhodle districts. In the central and southern regions scattered light to moderate rains were recorded in Dinsoor 49mm, Baidoa 32.5mm and Mogadishu 41.3mm. The rest of the region continued to experience hot and dry conditions, worsening the existing drought conditions.