According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, light rainfall is expected over several areas in the south and central regions and in some parts of Somaliland during this last week of November. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over Puntland, Galmudug and Sool-Sanaag regions. The observed rainfall during the first half of November was likely linked to the arrival of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which enhanced moisture influx into southern and central Somalia. The weakening and forward propagation of the MJO in this last week of November, as indicated by the latest ECMWF forecast, is likely to lead to less intense rains in the coming weeks. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over several areas in the following regions: Gedo, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Bay, Bakool, Lower Shabelle, Hiraan, Middle Shabelle, Togdheer, Woqooyi Galbeed and Awdal. The rains over the central parts of Gedo and northern parts of Lower Juba may be intense leading up to moderate amounts of 50 mm or more. It is important to note that similar rainfall amounts are likely over some areas within the catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers Dry conditions are likely to prevail over Bari, Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, Sool, and Sanaag regions and Buhoodle district, northern and southern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region, Gebiley and Berbera districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region, Borama district, southern parts of Zeylac district and central parts of Baki district in Awdal region, central parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region, Jowhar and Balcad districts in Middle Shabelle region, northern parts of Tayeeglow district and Rab Dhuure district in Bakool region, western parts of Dinsoor district and eastern parts of Buur Hakaba district in Bay region, northern parts of Badhaadhe district and southern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, western parts of Saakow district, northern parts of Bu’aale district, and northern parts of Jilib district in Middle Juba region.