Moderate to heavy rainfall expected over isolated parts of northern Somalia with light rains over central and dry conditions over southwestern parts of the country during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Very heavy rainfall of between 150 m and 200 mm is likely over central and northern parts of Awdal region, southern parts of Ceerigaabo district and western parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region, northern parts of Caynabo district in Sool region, Buuhoodle district in Togdheer region, and central parts of Bari region. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is anticipated over several areas in Awdal region; northern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeiya districts in Woqooyi Galbeed; northern and southern parts of Togdheer region; several areas in Sool region; several areas in Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region; northern parts of Qardho district, western parts of Iskushuban district, southern parts of Qandala district and southwestern parts of Caluula district in Bari region; central Garowe district, southern Eyl district and southern parts of Burtinle district in Nugaal region; and Galdogob district in Mudug region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is likely over southern Hargeisa in Woqooyi Galbeed region; Owdweyne in Togdheer region; northern parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region; Caluula district and southern parts of Qardho district in Bari region; northern parts of both Garowe and Eyl district and western parts of Burtinle district in Nugaal region; Jariiban and Garowe districts and southern parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region; and northern parts of Cabudwaaq in Galgaduud region. Similar moderate rainfall is likely over several areas in Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle regions. SOMALIA WEEKLY WEATHER FORECAST Valid From 24th to 30th May 2023 Moderate to heavy rainfall expected over isolated parts of northern Somalia with light rains over central and dry conditions over southwestern parts of the country. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected over several areas in Lower Juba region, Middel Juba region, Bay region, eastern parts of Bakool region, Hiraan region, Galgaduud region, Hobyo district in Mudug region, and the coastal areas of Bari region and Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Dry conditions are expected in the southwestern parts of the country particularly over Gedo region, Ran Dhuure and Waajid districts and southern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region, and western parts of Saakow district in Middel Juba region. Moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C are expected over several areas in the southern and northern parts of the country. Temperatures as low as 20°C are likely over some areas in the southern parts of Awdal region, southern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region, Sheikh district in northern Togdheer region, several areas in central Sanaag region (Ceerigaabo) and northern parts of Qandala district in Bari region. The coldest conditions (16°C to 20°C) are forecast over Erigavo in Sanaag region. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°C are expected in in Hiraan, Galgaduud, mudug, and the coastal areas in the northern part of the country. Similar hot conditions are also likely over Dollow and Luuq districts in Gedo region.

There is a High Risk of Flooding along the Shabelle River at Belet Weyne Moderate rains received in Shabelle River catchment in the Ethiopian highlands and light rains observed in the areas around the Ethiopian borderhave sustained a steady rise in levels along Shabelle River. In the last four days, 40.5 mm of cumulative rainfall has been received at Belet Weyne; 22 mm on 5th, 8.5 mm on 6th and 10 mm on 8th May 2023. The river levels at Belet Weyne steadily increased from 6.38m on 26th April to 7.90m as reported today (8th May 2023). Today’s level is 60 cm above the high flood risk level (7.30 m) and just 40 cm below the bank full (8.30m) threshold. However, at 6.12 m and 3.75 m, the levels at Bulo Burti and Jowhar are 38 cm and 1.25 m below their moderate flood risk thresholds. Since 2nd May 2023 when the high flood risk level was reached at Belet Weyne, any increment in run off occasioned by the moderate rains across the Ethiopian border can potentially lead to river flooding. The information coming from the field indicates that the river flow is hitting the deck of two bridges in Belet Weyne with very high likelihood of river overflowing the banks and causing flooding that might affect Belet Weyne town and its surrounding areas. The Hirshabelle State, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation is reported to be distributing pre-positioned sandbags to the vulnerable sites which have begun seeping the water into the town. Although these efforts may mitigate the effects of the flooding, population living in Belet Weyne town and its surrounding areas must still take precautionary measures. The rainfall forecast for the next three days (8th – 10th May) indicates light cumulative rain of about 10 mm over Belet Weyne and of about 20 mm over its catchment in the Ethiopian Highlands. Although there is high risk of flooding along Shabelle River at Belet Weyne currently, river levels are expected to stabilize to below moderate flood risk levels in the coming days given the above light to moderate forecast rainfall conditions.

According to the weekly forecast, several areas in central and southern Somalia are expected to receive moderate rainfall of over 50 mm of cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts are as follows: Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected in some parts of southern Somalia including Gedo, Lower Juba, Upper Juba, Lower Shabelle and Bay regions. In the Gedo region, the areas include Ceel Waaq district, northern Baardheere, and the southern border between Garbahaarey and Luuq regions. In Middle Juba region, the areas include northern parts of Saakow district, central parts of Buáale district and the northern parts of Jilib district. Areas included in the Lower Juba region are southern and eastern parts of Afmadow district and central and northern parts of Kismayo district. Areas in western part of Diinsoor district and southern parts of Buur Hakaba in Bay region and western parts of Sablaale in Lower Shabelle region, and coastal parts of Hobyo and Xarardheere districts in Muduug region are also likely to observe rains of similar amounts. Very heavy rainfall of above 150 mm is likely in isolated areas in southern Somalia and particularly over central parts of Gedo region Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over several areas in central and southern Somalia including; Gedo, Lower Juba, Upper Juba, Lower Shabelle and Bay regions, southern and eastern parts of Hiraan region, southern parts of Lower Shabelle region, and northern parts of Awdal region. Some areas in Bakool region and Galgaduud region, coastal areas in Muduug region, Sanaag region and northern parts of Bari region are also forecast to receive similar amounts of rainfall. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several parts of Bakool, Hiraan region, Middle Juba and Galgaduud, Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed regions. Similar rains are expected over central western parts of Sanaag region, northern parts of Togdheer region, northwestern parts of Sool region, and northwestern part of Bari region. Dry conditions are expected in several areas of the central and northern Somalia including non-coastal areas of Muduug, Nugaal, Bari and Sool regions. Similar dry conditions are forecast over several areas in central and eastern parts of Sanaag region, central and southern parts of Togdheer region, and some areas in the southwestern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region. Moderate temperatures of between 20°C and 32°C are expected over most parts of Somalia. However, cold conditions with temperatures less than 20°C are expected over very isolated areas in northern Sanaag and Bari regions.

According to the weekly forecast, several areas in southern Somalia are expected to observe moderate (above 50 mm) to heavy (above 100 mm) cumulative rainfall during the forecast period. The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected in some areas of southern Somalia including Ceel Waaq district and eastern parts of Bardheere district in Gedo region, eastern parts of Diinsoor district in Bay region, northern parts of Saakow district, southern parts of Buáale district and northern parts of Jilib district in Middle Juba region, and western parts of Jamaame district, southeastern parts of Afmadow district, north parts of Kismaayo and most parts of Badhaadhe district in Lower Juba region. Very heavy isolated rainfall of above 150 mm is likely in some of the above areas particularly over the eastern parts of Bardheere district in Gedo region and southeastern parts of Bu’aale district in Middle Juba region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over Middle Juba region, several areas in central and southern Gedo, eastern, southern and western Lower Juba region, central and western parts of Bay region, western and eastern coastal parts of Lower Shabelle region, and southwestern parts of Middle Shabelle region. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, Belet Xaawo, Garbahaarey, Luuq and Dollow districts in Gedo region, several parts of Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, and Bay regions, Rab Dhuure and Waajid districts, western parts of Xudur district and southern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region, Bulo Burti district in Hiraan region, southern parts of Ceel Buur district, northern parts of Ceel Dheer district and the coastal strips of Galgaduud region and southern Mudug region. Similar moderate rains are also expected over northern parts of Hargeisa district Woqooyi Galbeed region, Sheikh district and northern parts of Owdweyne and Burco districts in Togdheer region. Dry conditions are expected in central and northern parts of the country including Bari, Nugaal and Sool regions, several areas in Awdal, Sanaag, central and southern parts of Togdheer region, northern and southern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region, and vast non-coastal parts of Mudug region. Moderate temperatures of between 24 oC and 28 oC are expected in north and eastern parts of the country with cold conditions (temperatures less than 20 oC) likely very isolated areas in northern Sanaag and Bari regions. Moderate temperatures of between 28 ℃ and 32 ℃ are expected over central and southern Somalia.

According to the weekly forecast, several areas in southern, central and northwestern parts of Somalia are expected to observe heavy (above 100 mm) to very heavy (above 150 mm) cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Very heavy rainfall of more than 150 mm is expected over several areas in the central part of Lower Shabelle region including Kurtunwaarey, Qoryooley and Afgooye districts. Similarly heavy rainfall is likely over several areas in the southern parts of Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed. Very heavy rainfall is also expected over isolated areas in northeastern parts of Ceel Barde district in Bakool region, southern parts of Bulo Burti district in Hiraan region, southern border between Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigabo districts in Sanaag region, Sheikh district in Togdheer region, and Baki district in Awdal region. The rains over the border between Gebiley and Hargeisa may actually exceed 200 mm. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected in several areas of central Somalia including the entire Lower Shabelle region, northeastern parts of Baardheere district and isolated areas in Dollow and Luuq districts in Gedo region, Buur Hakaba district in Bay region, Hudur and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region, eastern parts of Jilib district in Middle Juba region, western parts of all Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region, and southern parts of Cabudwaaq and Dhuusamarreeb districts in Galgaduud region. Similarly heavy rainfall is likely over southern parts of Ceerigaabo district and southern and western parts of Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region, entire Caynabo district in Sool region, central parts of both Owdweyne and Burco district in Togdheer region, southern parts of Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed, Baki, Borama and Lughaye districts in Awdal region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over several areas in Awdal region, Woqooyi Galbeed region, Togdheer region, western and central parts of Sanaag and Sool regions. Rainfall of equal amount is likely over Badhaadhe, Kismaayo and Jamaame districts and eastern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, Saakow district, western parts of Jilib district and eastern parts of Buáale district in Middle Juba region, Dollow and Luuq districts and northeastern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region, Diinsoor, Qansax Dheere and Baydhaba districts in Bay region, Middle Shabelle region. Comparable rainfall is expected over Waajid and Rab Dhuure districts and western parts of Ceel Barde district in Bakool region, eastern parts of all Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region, Cabudwaaq and Cadaado districts, western parts of Dhuusamarreeb district and southern parts of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region and Galdogob district in mudug region. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several areas in Mudug and Nugaal region, western parts of Bari region and eastern parts of both Sanaag and Sool regions. Dry conditions are expected in northern and eastern parts of Bari region including the coastal areas in Bandarbeyla, Iskushuban, Caluula, Qandala and Bossaso districts. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°Care expected in southern and central parts of the country, and moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C in the northern parts

The weekly outlook shows that most parts of the country are expected to receive less than 50 mm of cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spread of the cumulative rainfall amounts are as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm expected over isolated areas in the north-western and southern parts of the country. The areas in the northwestern part of the country are: northern Zeylac district, central Baki district and northwestern Hargeisa district. Areas in the southern parts of the country are: Belet Xaawo, Ceel Waaq districts, southwestern parts of Baardheere district, northern Jilib district and southern Buáale district, southeastern Afmadow district central parts of Kismayo and Badhaadhe districts. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several parts of Awdal, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Gedo, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle and Hiraan regions. Rains of similar intensity are expected over central and northern Woqqoyi Galbeed, northern Togdheer region, northern border between Sanaag and Bari regions, central and western Galgaduud region, eastern Bakool region, southern Bay region, and the coastal strip of Mudug region. Dry conditions are expected in central parts of the country including most areas in Togdheer, Sool, Sannag, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions. Similar conditions are expected over northern and southern parts of Galgaduud region, central areas of Hiraan region, western Bakool region, and northern Gedo region, central and northern Bay region. Moderate temperatures of between 20°C and 32°Care expected over most parts of Somalia. However, cold conditions with temperatures less than 20°C are expected over isolated areas in northern parts of the country particularly the southern Awdal-Woqooyi Galbeed regional border, northwestern Togdheer region, and isolated areas in northern Sanaag and Bari regions.

FAO-SWALIM, the Somalia Water and Land Information Management, has completed an analysis and mapping project of river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle rivers. The project utilized Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to identify and classify the breakages into four categories: open, canal flooding, overflow, and closed with sandbags. The open breakages are those that are currently open and were observed on the latest VHR image available. The observations reported refer to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. The map identified a total of 62 open breakage points, 36 on the Shabelle River and 26 on the Juba River, which require immediate attention. In addition, 15 overflow points and 39 canal flooding points were identified during this season. The Horn of Africa region has experienced five consecutive poor rainy seasons, resulting in severe hydrological drought conditions in Somalia and neighboring countries. The Juba and Shabelle rivers, which have their headwaters in the Ethiopian highlands, have remained near or below the long-term average since the beginning of 2023, negatively impacting agriculture production, domestic and livestock water use for the riverine communities. However, the low river levels provide an opportunity to repair the river breakages and weak embankments before the next rainy season. It is important to note that the methodology used in this analysis, is biased towards remote sensing interpretation, with limited "ground truthing" due to difficulties in accessing the areas. Open breakages may have been omitted or classified as potential in some cases where satellite images were unavailable or not clear due to heavy cloud cover or dense vegetation.

Somalia’s Gu (April-May-June) is the main wet season in the country, and is critical in supporting agricultural activities and replenishing water and pasture. The season begins as early as the second half of March, at the tail end of the Jilal Season, and the rains intensify in April with the onset progressing north eastwards almost mimicking the south-north progression of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that follows the overhead sun. Gu rainfall cessation occurs in June in most parts of the country, with the north- eastern coastline receiving the least amount of rainfall during this season. According to the recently released Seasonal Climate Forecast issued by IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), there is a 50% likelihood that below normal rainfall (drier than normal conditions) will be observed over most parts of Somalia as is evidenced by the yellow coloration shown in Map 1. Over the northern parts of Middle Shabelle there is greater likelihood (60%) of observing such dry conditions. In the north eastern part of the country, southern Togdheer and Lower Juba there are equal probabilities of below normal, normal and above normal rains over most areas (denoted by white coloration). The above rainfall conditions will be accompanied by warmer than normal surface temperatures (55% likelihood) over much of the country, with increased chance of up to 70% over the northern areas. Drought analysis using SPI have shown moderate multi- season drought conditions in the southwestern Somalia (Gedo and Juba regions) and severe conditions over Sanaag region. Seasonal climate scientists have observed that the poor forecast 2023 Gu rains are comparable to the forecast conditions of the years 2017 and 2021. However, due to the poor predictability of the Gu rain season, the forecast is expected to have high spatial variability. Further, the rainfall forecasts categories vary over regions; 170 mm and 195 mm thresholds are applicable over Somalia. It is worth noting that this forecast is designed for a regional audience that addresses the rainfall totals summed over the three-month period from March to May 2023.

Based on climatology the fourth week of March marks the end of Jilal Season. However this year there has been an early transition into the Gu (April-May-June) long rains season in Somalia. Several parts of the country received moderate rains over the last week with fourteen stations receiving more than 1 mm of rain as is shown in Table 1. The heaviest rains were recorded in Gedo and Bay regions specifically Bardheere (86 mm), Wanle-Wayne (47.3 mm), Luuq (34 mm) and Dollow (23.1 mm). Other stations that recorded over 10 mm of rainfall include Belet Weyne (18 mm) in Hiran, Iskushuban (17 mm) in Bari, Buhoodle (14.7 mm) and Las Anod (10.5 mm) in Sool regions. Continued dry conditions were observed over Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Nugaal, Galgaduud, Bakool, Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba regions. Based on ICPAC’s rainfall forecast for the next seven days (Map 1), it indicates that most parts of the country will receive more than 10 mm of cumulative rainfall. The spread of the cumulative 7 day rainfall amounts are as follows: Light rainfall of between 10 mm and 50 mm are expected over Nugaal, Mudug, Sanaag, southern and eastern Galgaduud, southern parts of Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle northern parts of Middle Shabelle, most parts of Gedo and Middle Juba, northern and southeastern parts of Bari, most parts of Sool and central parts of Togdheer and the northern most parts of Woqooyi Galbeed and Awdal. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 150 mm are anticipated over most parts in Lower Juba, Bakool, Hiraan, Woqooyi Galbeed, southeastern Gedo, western parts of Galgaduud, southern Awdal, southern and northern parts of Togdheer and some areas in southwestern and north eastern Bari. Heavy rainfall of over 150 mm anticipated in isolated pockets in the northern Bakool, western Galgaduud, southern Awdal, southwestern and north eastern Bari regions. Moderate temperatures of between 20 °C and 32 °C are expected over most parts of Somalia. However, cold conditions with temperatures less than 20 °C are expected over isolated areas in northern parts of the country particularly the southern parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed, northwestern Togdheer, central areas in the northern Sanaag and Bari. The heavy rains received over the last few days on both sides of the Ethiopia-Somali border resulted into a sharp rise in river levels along Juba. In Dollow and Luuq stations, Gedo region, the river rose by over 2.5 m within 24 hours between 18th and 20th March. Dollow recorded 2.94 m increase, from 1.94 m on 18th March to 4.88m on 20th March, surpassing the moderate flood risk level. In Luuq the river level rose from 1.96 m to 4.5 m on 19th and 20th March respectively. The levels have slightly reduced in both stations (4.02 m in Dollow and 4.4 m in Luuq) over the last 24 hours. However, with the current forecast more water is expected from the Ethiopian catchment and within Somalia, posing a moderate risk of floods in the upper reaches of the river. Along Shabelle the river levels are still low, with no immediate risk of flooding. The heavy rains observed over Bardheere (86 mm) have been reported to lead to destruction of property and possible loss of life. Based on climatology, these rains represent a wetter than usual conditions. The observed and forecast wet conditions together with the cold conditions (temperatures less than 20 °C) expected over isolated areas in northern parts of the country particularly the southern parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed, northwestern Togdheer, central areas in the northern Sanaag and Bari are likely to lead to partial recharge of surface water sources and vegetation regeneration giving a glimmer of hope for human and livestock survival. However, high temperatures (about 32 °C) that are forecast to succeed the wet conditions may lead to rapid evaporation thereby leaving no soil water to support vegetation regeneration.

Heavy rains received in Gedo region and other areas around the Ethiopian border over the last week resulted to a sharp rise in Juba river levels. Over the last 24 hours Bardheere station recorded heavy rainfall (92 mm) leading to significant flooding in the Bardheere town and surrounding areas. The river levels as reported this morning at Bardhere (9.00 m) and Dollow (5.14 m) surpass the high flood risk threshold for the two stations. These floods are reported to have caused significant destruction of property and farmlands. According to our sources, over the last four days, the floods in Bardheere have caused a loss of 13 lives. The risk of flooding along the entire reach of the Juba river remains high throughout this week, as the flood wave moves downstream. Therefore, communities residing along the Juba riverine areas must exercise extra caution as the water levels continue to rise. Along Shabelle river, levels have started rising gradually, but the risk of flooding remains low in the coming week. The rainfall forecast for the next three days indicates moderate to heavy rains over the Ethiopian highlands and within the Somalia-Ethiopia border. These rains will lead to sustained high river levels along the Juba and a rise in Shabelle river where the levels are currently low. In Bay and Lower Juba regions, isolated heavy rains of up to 150 mm are expected in the next three days and may result to flash floods.